The Shape of things to come

Maurice addressed an audience that topped out at a little over 200 on-line attendees, kindly hosted by FRP Advisory and moderated by Adrian Doble from TMA UK. This really impressive webinar can be accessed here.

13 May, 2020

Maurice started by relating back to the changes since 2008 that are changing the dialogue in politics away from the assumption that rules-based globalisation system is right, or the most appropriate way of organising the economy. He then proceeded to highlight 4 areas of change that support this idea and that are likely to influence politics and economics for the foreseeable future.

1. Increasing focus on the role of the nation state, not just in the UK but globally. He referenced the suspension of Schengen in March and the unilateral decision of the EU member states to close their borders to one another that was a good demonstration of this. The ECB has played little role. Germany and France then moved to ban the export of PPE, as the US moved to protect its citizens by commandeering supplies to non-US destinations.

Speaking candidly, Maurice referred to the role of the EU, if it even survives until Brexit talks are concluded, that will change as nations are waking up to the fact that they have been wholly unprepared for the shortages in basic essentials in this crisis and that future Governments will move to ensure that they are not caught out again or overly reliant upon factors of production outside of their control.

2. Working people matter again. After decades of outsourcing production and the deskilling of home-based labour in favour of imported unskilled labour the method has run its course. Maurice cited some examples where the rising influence of ordinary working people was felt before. It was shown in the 2016 referendum (largely ignored), the General Election campaign by the Conservatives that saw the Red Wall torn down and, now, in the national awakening that people who are unable to work from home because they work for the good of other people have a vote, a place in society and deserve recognition.

3. A notion of ‘Place’ purpose and sustainability. Britain’s successes in re-growing the economy since the collapse of financial institutions and systems is being recognised in the debate around local accountability, of regional financing, of respect for the environment, of obligation to building community alongside profit. His view of the UK landscape has room for regional banks, endowed with funding that takes influence into the regions and away from the City of London. A system being embraced by the Government of the day in its pledge to the communities around the UK.

4. Diminishing Globalisation. Already clear is that countries are re-casting their international relations and that China in particular, is under scrutiny. That is not to say that Global corporations cannot flourish through tech or reach. Contribution, risk to local economies and people mean that relationships with global corporations will be examined more closely, such as Huawei, Steel and our nuclear programme.

There were many questions in the hour and many will follow to our friend Maurice, to whom we are extremely grateful for giving up his time.